Demographics Analysis

[Trip]

In this thread I will compile all information about our opponents that I can, especially info that can be gleaned from the F11 screen.

On the first turn, so far only the Brazilian team has built their first city. The other two teams ahead of us (GCA and CDZ) have both moved their Settler this turn, possibly towards fresh water.

As far as demographics, there's only one team so far, so it's easy to figure out what they're doing.

Their GNP is 5 (where ours is 4) and their MFG is 2 (same as us). The fact that their GNP is so high strongly suggests that they're on a river. The capital tile will net them 1 shield and 3 gold, so that leaves 1s and 2g unaccounted for. The best combo to acquire this would be a sugar tile along a river (2f, 1s, 2g).

[Trip]

3950 BC

One other team is now at 5 GNP, above us at 4 (we're 3rd). This means someone else either has a really high gold tile, and it's likely they're next to a river. One poor team is at a GNP of 2 (either GCA or CDZ), which is really low. They're definitely not on a river.

As far as MFG, one team is at 3 (above us), another team is at 2 with us, and the third is at 1.

[Trip]

Done some more sleuthing since the beginning.

It's clear that CDZ has started on a river and has either a wheat or cattle tile within their starting radius (which is probably why they moved). Their capital grew to size 2 in only 5 turns, which means 4 FPT... 1 extra from the city tile (river) and 3 from wheat or cattle. They they grew from size 2 to 3 in four turns, which is 5 FPT, meaning they probably irrigated the bonus food tile they had.

Since they're on a river, that must mean that GCA is the civ that did not start on the river (with the GNP of 2 in 3950 BC).

[Trip]

Based on the growth rates of Brazil, GCA and CFC it's fairly safe to say that they do not have any bonus food tiles or did not start on rivers (in the case of CFC anyways, who is AGR).

CFC may have started on a river with a cattle (4 food per turn) and then built a Worker just as they grew to size 2, which would make it seem like they didn't actually grow when they did (like what we did). However, that is unlikely and we will be able to disprove that in a couple turns depending on when their city grows to size 3... should be 2 or 3 turns after us if they do have a food bonus similar to ours.

[Trip]

CDZ's capital has grown to size 4 and built a Settler this turn. This is consistant with their 5-food bonus. They grew to size 3 on turn 11, and this is turn 15 (four turns later, which is perfect for 5 FPT).

Our next Settler comes in 4 more turns. :)

[Trip]

Turn 18 has illuminated quite a bit.

CFC's city has 7-turn growth, which suggests they moved their city 2 tiles in order to be on a river. They've grown from 1 to 2 from turns 3 to 10, and then up to size 3 on turn 18.

Brazil's population has acted quite odd lately, dropping 1 pop each turn the past 2 turns... this strongly suggests they're on flood plains and got a bout of disease. This is a good theory since they grew from size 2 to 3 from turns 11 to 16, whereas their growth from 1 to 2 was much slower (needed time to irrigate the flood plains). They must have felt :barf: when they got that disease so early... :(

[Trip]

After building Lunar Point, we are in 3rd place in land area. This means that the two other teams that have built cities (CFC and CDZ) have put them farther away from their capital than we have... suggesting they're doing either 3 or 4-tile city spacing.

Such ameteurs... :evilgrin:

[Trip]

I've been doing some highly detailed analyses of the other teams and their demographics, and will post my full results sometime after I return in a couple days.

Basically, I've pinpointed the GNP, MFG and Productivity values for all the other teams.

[muk14]

Ya just cheking out this quick reply thingy

[Trip]

This is a chart showing the Productivity (GNP + MFG + food bonus) of every team in this game from the beginning up through now.

Notice that we're in 1st place. :) Our values will jump another 10 points within the next 3 turns due to growth in Ra (2 more) and Kyrandia being built (which will bring in 7 more). CDZ has already built their 3rd city, whereas Kyrandia is our 3rd city, meaning we will be far ahead of them soon.

[Trip]

Three more charts for your statistically-minded entertainment.

First one tracks total score over the turns (the one shown on the main screen).

(Second one is the difference in score between us and the rest of the teams. If a team is above 0 (the x-axis) then they have a greater score than us (only CDZ right now) whereas the ones below 0 are the teams below us.

Third chart is the score per turn increase for the teams. Gradually the score per turn goes down if no new score is being added because as the current value (a sum of all turns of the game) approaches the turn value the amount gained per turn decreases. Thus sharp increases are indications of something new adding to score, mostly borders expanding in cities and new cities being built. For example, CFC's increase from turns 18 to 21 from 2 to 5 was due to them building their first city.

[Dauphin]

Three more charts for your statistically-minded entertainment.

Third chart is the score per turn increase for the teams. Gradually the score per turn goes down if no new score is being added because as the current value (a sum of all turns of the game) approaches the turn value the amount gained per turn decreases. Thus sharp increases are indications of something new adding to score, mostly borders expanding in cities and new cities being built. For example, CFC's increase from turns 18 to 21 from 2 to 5 was due to them building their first city.

If you want the 'actual' score increase, there is a little formula you can use to work it out. I've got an excel file I can attach as a template. In the file attached the turn scores, once they are typed in, are smoothed out a bit on the per turn chart.

NB. Type the scores in the the top set of boxes and the charts create per turn and overall scores. The number immediately after the last turn along the top line of the spreadsheet needs to be deleted, else it gets a bit unsightly on the per turn chart.

[Trip]

http://www.apolyton.net/forums/images/smilies/bowdown.gif

Dauphin, I must say, that that is THE most informative score-tracking data-grabber that I have ever seen.

[Laser]

Does that file require Excel to open and view, cuz I don't have Excel. :(

[Trip]

Yes, it is an xls file.

I will post a new chart with Dauphin's new template adapted to my current spreadsheets.